Donald Trump leads the Republican presidential field with 25 percent among likely GOP primary voters, according to the University of Akron’s Bliss Institute of Applied Politics and Zogby Analytics poll released Aug. 4. The poll paints a picture of the state of the race in the 2016 GOP presidential campaign heading into the first national debate Thursday, Aug. 6, in Cleveland, Ohio.
According to their findings, based on 565 likely GOP primary voters across the country, Trump is followed by Jeb Bush at 17 percent and Scott Walker at 9 percent.
Rounding out the top nine candidates are Ben Carson and Ted Cruz, 6 percent; Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee, 5 percent; and Marco Rubio, 4 percent. There is a statistical dead heat for the 10th spot among seven candidates, including Chris Christie, Rick Perry and John Kasich.
Dr. John Green
Gauging results
Voter predictions as to which candidate will win the debate generally follow this order, with 26 percent predicting Trump will win and 17 percent predicting Bush.
However, 67 percent of Republican voters say Trump will get the most publicity from the debate.
“The state of the race remains in flux,” said Dr. John C. Green, director of UA’s Bliss Institute of Applied Politics, “and the difference between the poll standing of the last several candidates in the debate will be small.”
Overall, 67 percent of likely GOP primary voters are very satisfied or somewhat satisfied with the current field of candidates.
How voters view first debate
About one-third (31 percent) of Republican voters approve of Cleveland, Ohio, as the site of the first official Republican debate. And voters are nearly evenly divided on the rules for including candidates set by Fox News: 38 percent agree with limiting the debate to the top candidates, while 39 percent say it should be open to all the candidates.
Karl Rove
Three-fifths (60 percent) of GOP voters say they plan to watch the debate on Thursday night and another one-quarter (24 percent) are undecided.
The online survey was conducted by Zogby Analytics Aug. 3-4 as part of a national survey of likely voters. The margin of error for likely Republican voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
UA's Bliss Institute
The University of Akron’s Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics is a teaching and research institute that specializes in the “nuts and bolts” of practical politics. It has conducted a wide variety of studies on public opinion, political activists and campaigns, with a special focus on the battleground state of Ohio.
On the eve of the debate, the Bliss Institute teams up with two northeast Ohio universities to get an insider’s perspective from noted GOP strategist Karl Rove. This presidential debate preview – which also serves as a scholarship fundraiser – will be held at 6 p.m. on Wednesday, Aug. 5, at Cibréo Privato, 1438 Euclid Ave., in the Playhouse Square district of downtown Cleveland. The event, moderated by Green, is co-sponsored by The Ralph and Mary Regula Center for Public Service and Civic Engagement at the University of Mount Union and the Maxine Goodman Levin College of Urban Affairs at Cleveland State University. Tickets and information are available online.
Engage with the Bliss Institute on Twitter during the entire presidential election campaign at @UAkronBliss and use the hashtag #Bliss2016.
Zogby Analytics
The 2016 race represents Zogby Analytics’ sixth presidential election and remains among the best known and most accurate polling brands throughout the world. Nationally and internationally respected for its opinion research capabilities, Zogby Analytics empowers its clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions and has done so since 1984. Zogby brings to public opinion research precise data collection methods including interactive interviews, telephone interviewing, online surveys, focus groups, executive interviews, mail, door-to-door, intercept interviews, market sector analysis, and feasibility studies. Every element of the analytics process is painstakingly examined to meet the highest standards of public opinion research, creating products and results that not only perform as expected, but also are accurate, bias-free, and error-free.
Media contacts: Dan Minnich, 330-972-6476 or dminnich@uakron.edu, or Lisa Craig, 330-972-7429 or lmc91@uakron.edu.