Bliss Institute Poll: Strickland, Blackwell Ahead in Governor's Race

Akron, Ohio, April 5, 2006 — U.S. Rep. Ted Strickland and Secretary of State Ken Blackwell are the leading candidates in their parties' respective May 2 gubernatorial primaries, according to the results of the latest Akron Buckeye Poll, a statewide survey conducted by The University of Akron's Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics.

In other findings, nearly 60 percent of Ohioans favor Democrats taking over control of state government, and although Ohioans support the Tax Expenditure Limitation (TEL) amendment in principle, most have not yet focused on the topic, according to Dr. John Green, Bliss Institute director.

The poll is based on a survey of a random sample of Ohio citizens interviewed via telephone between Feb. 20 and March 25 by The University of Akron Survey Research Center. A total of 1,075 people were surveyed, and the overall margin of error was plus or minus three percentage points.

“This poll shows that Ohio politics is in a state of flux,” says Green, “with the prospect of a very competitive campaign in the fall.”

Other major survey findings include:

• Of respondents planning to vote in the May 2 Republican or Democratic primaries, and if so, their respective preferences: 39.3 percent of Republicans favored Blackwell, 32 percent favored Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro, with the remaining 28.7 percent undecided. In the Democratic primary 48.3 percent favored Strickland, 8.5 percent favored former state legislator Brian Flannery, and 43.2 percent were undecided.

• In a general election trial heat among likely voters in the fall election, Strickland leads Blackwell by 37.9 percent to 32.8 percent with 29 percent undecided. In a second trial heat vs. Petro, Strickland led Petro by a margin of 32 percent to 28.3 percent with 39.7 percent undecided.

• Results suggest Ohioans may be ready for a change of leadership in state government. Fifty-nine percent of respondents say they prefer that Democrats take control of state government, 33.6 percent want Republicans to retain power, and 7.4 percent were undecided. Among independent voters, 62 percent say they want Democrats rather than Republicans in control of state government.

“This number helps quantify the fallout from the scandals at the state level,” says Green.

• Ohioans express support for the Tax Expenditure Limitation (TEL) constitutional amendment, which will appear on the Nov. 8 ballot. The amendment would limit government spending increases to 3.5 percent each year, or the combined rates of inflation plus the increase in population, whichever is higher. Overall, 77 percent of the respondents said TEL was a good idea because it will “eliminate wasteful government spending,” and 67 percent of the respondents said TEL was good because it will “keep taxes down.”

However, only about 15 percent of polled respondents were familiar with TEL. In the current survey, 39.2 percent favored TEL, 25.4 percent opposed it and 35.4 percent were undecided. Support was down from last fall's Buckeye poll, when 41.7 percent supported the amendment.

Green says the poll numbers suggest Ohio is in for a close race for the governor's office, and voters' political ideology is holding true to form, particularly on the Republican side.

“We found that there were major differences based on ideology. Forty-six percent of Blackwell's voters claimed to be ‘very conservative' compared to 32 percent of the Petro voters,” Green says. “On the other hand, 26 percent of Petro's supporters called themselves ‘moderate' compared to 14 percent of Blackwell supporters.”

The complete report can be found online at www.uakron.edu/bliss/research.php.

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