UA Researcher Sees Political Shake-Up from Oklahoma Term Limits

Akron, Ohio, Sept. 22, 2003 Term limits likely will alter the political landscape in Oklahoma by shaking up the state Capitol next year, according to data released by a University of Akron political scientist.

Dr. Rick Farmer an assistant professor of political science at UA and fellow in the Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics notes that 41 of 149 Oklahoma legislators will not be returning to the state Capitol after the 2004 election due to term limits.

The 28 percent term limit rate is very near the 30 percent average that other states experienced in their first term limited year, Farmer said. Clearly, the large number of legislators who will be termed out' in 2004 will have a significant effect on the legislature.

This is a bit of a surprise to most observers, according to Farmer, who has been studying Oklahoma term limits since their inception in 1990.

Oklahoma has 12-year limits, while many other states have eight years, he says. It was expected that Oklahoma's longer limits would reduce the number of members being forced out, but that wasn't the case.

The effect on the House and Senate will be roughly equal, Farmer continues. In 2004, 28 of 101 state representatives and 13 of 48 state senators will be removed. In 2006, an additional 19 representatives and 12 senators will be removed. These figures also proved to be a surprise, he says. Because many senators' careers include time in both chambers, they would be expected to accumulate more seniority.

Democrats have more to fear in the short term from term limits than Republicans, Farmer says. In 2004, term limits are removing 18 Democratic representatives and eight Democratic senators. Republicans will lose 10 House members and five senators.

Election analyses indicate that while state legislative incumbents win reelection 90 percent of the time, open-seat races are determined more by candidate quality than by district demographics and partisanship.

As a result of the open seats created by term limits, if they have a good year recruiting, Republicans have almost twice as many opportunities as Democrats to move seats into their column, Farmer says.

The partisan balance is particularly important because Republicans only need to pick up three seats to take over the majority in the House. Republicans would need five seats to win the Senate majority.

2004 is a presidential election year and Republicans have carried Oklahoma in every election since 1964, Farmer says. The combination of term limits and the presidential election give the Republicans the best chance they have had to capture the state House since 1920.

By this logic, Republicans become more vulnerable than Democrats in 2012, he adds.

Bush received 60 percent of the vote in Oklahoma in 2000 lending a hand to Republican candidates that year, Farmer says. If all of the members retain their seats, Republicans have three times as many seats termed-out in 2012 as Democrats.

Many observers have expressed concern that term limits will leave the legislature without experienced leadership, he notes. However, in 2004 only six of the 26 members of the House leadership will be removed, and just three of 14 leaders will be removed in the Senate.

This suggests that the legislative caucuses have been preparing for term limits by developing junior leadership, Farmer says.

Committee chairmanships have traditionally been held by the most senior members. However, less than half of the current chairmen will be termed out in 2004. This too suggests that the legislature has been preparing for the inevitable, he says.

The study also sees more opportunities for women to gain seats in the legislature, and that the average age of legislators will decline.

Term limits are not as good as proponents hoped, nor are they as bad as opponents feared, says Farmer, who has studied term limits extensively in other states. For example, experienced leaders will be lost but other leaders are prepared to take their place. The most dramatic effects in the near term may be partisan.

Farmer has written extensively on term limits in Oklahoma and he recently co-edited a book on term limits in the United States titled The Test of Time: Coping With Legislative Term Limits. Data describing some effects of term limits on Oklahoma are available on the Web at www.uakron.edu/bliss/tl/ok .